Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 0.909004 1.058890 1.225316 1.423757 1.653911 1.912438 2.224912
2025-01-19 0.638952 0.830769 1.067559 1.381159 1.785534 2.289465 2.965517
2025-01-26 0.518706 0.728907 1.008532 1.407315 1.961305 2.703844 3.775543
2025-02-02 0.459715 0.688089 1.010884 1.499700 2.220954 3.246251 4.815961
2025-02-09 0.403620 0.638137 0.987507 1.544791 2.411082 3.706726 5.793926
2025-02-16 0.354242 0.588262 0.953704 1.564396 2.559012 4.115606 6.739729
2025-02-23 0.310683 0.539636 0.912891 1.563724 2.669774 4.473800 7.643521
2025-03-02 0.272561 0.493602 0.868649 1.548915 2.751463 4.789385 8.509818
2025-03-09 0.243331 0.458225 0.836721 1.549028 2.855425 5.149772 9.490557
2025-03-16 0.210652 0.411715 0.778663 1.493870 2.852251 5.320059 10.149807
2025-03-23 0.203219 0.411156 0.803384 1.593147 3.142562 6.047153 11.912833
2025-03-30 0.179539 0.375705 0.757825 1.552026 3.160114 6.268127 12.738965
2025-04-06 0.157256 0.340526 0.709363 1.500987 3.155910 6.454745 13.537976
2025-04-13 0.138327 0.309757 0.665972 1.454960 3.156792 6.653141 14.390283
2025-04-20 0.128528 0.297136 0.658284 1.482456 3.313707 7.185147 16.000516
2025-04-27 0.125474 0.299000 0.681557 1.579712 3.632327 8.091098 18.522422
2025-05-04 0.118645 0.291228 0.682574 1.627180 3.846078 8.795269 20.683526
2025-05-11 0.110544 0.279290 0.672575 1.647818 4.000724 9.385524 22.656079
2025-05-18 0.101893 0.264769 0.654638 1.647111 4.104583 9.870907 24.439906
2025-05-25 0.093245 0.249044 0.631821 1.631521 4.170411 10.274621 26.076117
2025-06-01 0.086354 0.236872 0.616150 1.631640 4.274781 10.781368 28.025072
2025-06-08 0.077166 0.217349 0.579563 1.573575 4.224599 10.904929 29.026071
2025-06-15 0.076652 0.221292 0.603857 1.678085 4.608676 12.155673 33.075375